Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 0.013691 0.015484 0.017424 0.019681 0.022233 0.025031 0.028332
2025-10-26 0.010698 0.013127 0.015977 0.019570 0.023983 0.029230 0.035952
2025-11-02 0.009071 0.011769 0.015115 0.019572 0.025365 0.032648 0.042523
2025-11-09 0.007783 0.010568 0.014183 0.019222 0.026079 0.035106 0.047928
2025-11-16 0.007004 0.009895 0.013797 0.019454 0.027469 0.038450 0.054694
2025-11-23 0.006255 0.009155 0.013206 0.019293 0.028233 0.040924 0.060395
2025-11-30 0.005817 0.008794 0.013089 0.019753 0.029869 0.044709 0.068253
2025-12-07 0.005164 0.008042 0.012318 0.019153 0.029849 0.046020 0.072476
2025-12-14 0.004680 0.007493 0.011790 0.018853 0.030222 0.047905 0.077685
2025-12-21 0.004206 0.006912 0.011154 0.018311 0.030144 0.049044 0.081752
2025-12-28 0.004038 0.006804 0.011249 0.018940 0.031987 0.053368 0.091351
2026-01-04 0.003840 0.006626 0.011211 0.019335 0.033461 0.057179 0.100383
2026-01-11 0.003666 0.006479 0.011219 0.019821 0.035151 0.061530 0.110806
2026-01-18 0.003403 0.006154 0.010897 0.019707 0.035785 0.064116 0.118340
2026-01-25 0.003185 0.005890 0.010656 0.019709 0.036614 0.067088 0.126802
2026-02-01 0.002936 0.005545 0.010242 0.019356 0.036753 0.068806 0.133046
2026-02-08 0.002794 0.005386 0.010150 0.019590 0.038000 0.072653 0.143650
2026-02-15 0.002611 0.005134 0.009865 0.019428 0.038467 0.075051 0.151612
2026-02-22 0.002521 0.005056 0.009901 0.019891 0.040187 0.079984 0.165027
2026-03-01 0.002313 0.004725 0.009421 0.019287 0.039722 0.080571 0.169612
2026-03-08 0.002156 0.004486 0.009103 0.018984 0.039839 0.082320 0.176735
2026-03-15 0.001987 0.004208 0.008685 0.018439 0.039404 0.082895 0.181395
2026-03-22 0.001950 0.004202 0.008823 0.019072 0.041510 0.088918 0.198349